| HEV Market Facts |
 |
 |
Total 2006 market 384,000 units |
|
|
Toyota with 78% market share |
|
|
Toyota Prius alone at 45% market share
|
|
|
The only other volume producers are Honda and Ford
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
World hybrid-vehicle market by automaker |
|
|
| Hybrid Categories Facts |
|
|
Strong Hybrids dominate the market |
|
|
Moderate hybrids are somewhat successful |
|
|
Mild hybrids have failed to gain market share
|
|
|
Low cost micro hybrids are emerging in Europe
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
| Hybrid-vehicle configurations |
|
World hybrid-vehicle sales by hybrid category |
|
|
|
| HEV Regional Sales Facts |
|
|
US market responsible for over 50% of total and is growing fast |
|
|
Japanese market is 2nd with moderate growth |
|
|
Selective markets in Europe including London and Belgium starting to grow
|
|
|
New markets in Asia outside Japan starting to grow
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
Hybrid-vehicle sales by world region |
|
|
| HEV Battery Market Facts |
|
|
The NiMH HEV pack business at $600 million in 2006 accounts for nearly half of total NiMH battery business |
|
|
Panasonic EV Energy (PEVE), a joint venture between Toyota and Panasonic with over 75% market share |
|
|
Sanyo is the only other significant supplier
|
|
|
Li Ion still in prototype limited production level through 2006
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
Hybrid-vehicle battery sales (pack level): 2000-2006 |
|
|
| PHEV Facts |
|
|
Attractive configuration except for the battery |
|
|
Battery cost, volume life reliability and safety are all challenging |
|
|
Li Ion is preferred but safety and durability are big challenges |
|
|
Significant R&D and demonstration programs on the way
|
|
|
Hard to envision volume production anytime soon
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
PHEV battery volume impact analysis (Toyota Camry) |
|
|
| HEV Future Market Facts |
|
|
Growth drivers: |
|
|
 |
The cost of petroleum |
|
|
|
Global warming, particularly as it translates into notable government involvement—via taxation incentives or regulations—to encourage the production of fuel-efficient cars |
|
|
|
Customer interest in new and greener technologies |
|
|
Risks and growth-impeding factors: |
|
|
|
If a steady reduction in oil prices to below $50 per barrel occurs |
|
|
|
Significant adoption of diesel-powered cars in the U.S. market |
|
|
|
Failure of HEV batteries to provide at least eight years of life in most applications |
|
|
|
Inability of the HEV industry to reduce system costs (including, most prominently, battery costs) at the steady rate now projected |
|
|
| HEV Battery Market Facts |
|
|
The HEV battery market, estimated at $600 million in 2006 |
|
|
HEV battery market is expected to grow to $2.3 billion by 2015 |
|
|
|
In comparison, the total current conventional SLI lead-acid OEM battery business is about $2 billion and is nearly flat |
|
|
NiMH batteries will continue to be the dominant battery technology for a few more years - the path and pace of Li ion penetration into the market is the pivotal question |
|
|
The current high cost of nickel is a significant drawback of NiMH batteries, but we expect the cost pressures to ease before the end of this decade as new nickel mines commence production |
|
|
Toyota’s moves over the next four years are likely to determine the pace of Li-Ion introduction into the HEV battery business |
|
|
| Li Ion for HEV – Facts |
|
|
The preferred technology at some point in the future |
|
|
|
Still a risk for short-term implementation |
|
|
The main challenges facing Li Ion HEV batteries are manufacturing yields and reliability, including longevity and potential safety issues, which all pose a notable financial risk to both battery producers and automakers |
|
|
Multiple chemistries and cell configurations are being pursued |
