Advanced Automotive Battery Technology, Application and Market
Wednesday, February 6 to Friday February 8, 2013
AABC 2013 AABTAM Symposium - Advanced Automotive Battery Technology, Application and Market - session 1
The 2017-2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Rule - a Vehicle Electrification Perspective
Dr. Edward Nam, Director, Light Duty Vehicle and Small Engine Center,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Market Development of HEVs, EVs, and their Batteries
Government involvement in EVs and PHEVs has propelled the advanced-vehicle industry forward. Hybrid offerings are expanding and most carmakers have launched their first PHEV and EV models or are about to introduce them into the market. But what level of government involvement is sustainable and what will be the impact of potential policy changes on the industry? In this session, independent industry observers and representatives of governments and carmakers will assess the various market-growth scenarios and sift through the proposed electrified-vehicle configurations to discuss the likely direction of the advanced-vehicle market and the impact on the advanced automotive battery industry.
Dr. Menahem Anderman, President, Advanced Automotive Batteries
President of Advanced Automotive Batteries and founder of Total Battery Consulting, Inc., Dr. Anderman has led the development and commercialization of high-power Ni-Cd batteries, Li-Ion batteries, and ultracapacitors and spent the last ten years conducting assessments of energy-storage technologies for advanced vehicles, publishing Advanced Automotive Battery Industry Reports and chairing the AABC.
In search of the Optimal Hybrid Configuration
The realization that mass-market battery EVs are unlikely to happen inside the next 10-12 years has prompted automakers to re-focus their advanced vehicle development on hybridization. Automakers are searching for the optimal level of hybridization between the stop/start vehicles, which are already in mass production and can be considered micro-(0) hybrids at the low end, and PHEVs capable of extended electric drive at the high end. This presentation will discuss:
- Low-voltage xEV configurations
- Energy-storage options for low-voltage systems
- High-voltage hybrid and plug-in hybrid configurations
- Energy storage for high-voltage hybrids
- Cost and customer benefits versus meeting governments regulations
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) have issued final rules extending the National Program to further reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve fuel economy for model years (MYs) 2017 through 2025 light-duty vehicles. The final standards are projected to result in an average industry fleetwide level of 163 grams/mile of carbon dioxide (CO2) in model year 2025, which is equivalent to 54.5 miles per gallon (mpg) if achieved exclusively through fuel economy improvements. This new phase in this broadly supported national program conserves billions of barrels of oil, cuts carbon pollution, protects consumer choice, and enables long-term planning for automakers. Combined with the MYs 2012-2016 standards, today’s final program will result in MY 2025 vehicles emitting one-half of the GHG emissions of a MY 2010 vehicle, representing the most significant federal action ever taken to reduce GHG emissions and improve fuel economy.
EPA projects that manufacturers will comply with the MYs 2017-2025 standards by using a wide range of technologies, including continual advances in gasoline engines and transmissions, vehicle weight reduction, lower tire rolling resistance, vehicle aerodynamics, diesel engines, and more efficient vehicle accessories. EPA also expects to see some increased electrification of the fleet through the expanded production of stop/start, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and electric vehicles. To support the study of current and emerging electrification technologies, EPA has added battery pack research test cells at our National Vehicle and Fuels Emissions Laboratory.
As with the first phase of the National Program, this second phase of the program the GHG program provides a wide range of credit programs and flexibilities for manufacturers to meet the standards. The flexibilities provide incentives to facilitate market penetration of the most advanced vehicle technologies. The rule includes an incentive multiplier for compliance purposes for all electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCV) and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles sold in MYs 2017 through 2021. For EVs, PHEVs and FCVs, EPA is setting 0 g/mi CO2 as the tailpipe compliance value for EVs, PHEVs (electricity usage) and FCVs for MYs 2017-2025. EPA is also finalizing an additional CO2 per vehicle credit, for mild and strong hybrid electric (HEV) full-size pickup trucks, if this advanced technology is utilized across a designated percentage of a manufacturers’ full-size pickup trucks. This incentive further encourages manufacturers to begin to transform the most challenged category of vehicles in terms of the penetration of advanced technologies. Furthermore, EPA has provided for more off cycle credit opportunities for electrified vehicles.
Marketability Challenges for Advanced Technology Vehicles
Robert Bienenfeld, Sr. Manager, Environ. & Energy Strategy, Product Regulatory Office,
American Honda Motor Company
We often make the mistake of marketing tomorrow’s advanced technology vehicles against today’s average car. As a result of the 2025 Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas regulations in the US, we must reconsider this approach. Conventional vehicles will be dramatically redefined in the next decade. Advanced vehicles must be considered from the standpoint of the best conventional vehicles of the next few years. Sections of the presentation include:
- Social benefits for advanced technology
- Cost-benefits of advanced technology
- Implications for marketing and incentives
HEV/PEV Market Update
Michael Lord, Vehicle Regulation & Certification Engineering,
Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America
The market acceptance of HEV and Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV) which includes both BEVs and PHEVs are predicated on value perceived by the customer.
In terms of operation, hybrids do not differ in any way than that of a conventional vehicle so the purchase decision is driven by cost, fuel economy, vehicle utility, and environmental image. However, both BEVs and PHEVs deviate from hybrids in that there is an additional need to recharge the vehicle. More importantly for the BEV, the driver must be cognizant of vehicle range limitations in their travel plans and the time needed to recharge when the battery is depleted.
While policy initiatives and regulatory requirements are strong drivers in the electrification of automobile transportation, the success of this technology will ultimately be determined by how well the products will be accepted by customers in the market. This presentation will look at:
- Toyota’s current HEV and EV market line-up
- HEV and EV Market Trends;
- Future vision of the EV Market;
- Update usage data from Toyota’s vehicle program
Will Advances in Battery Technology be Sufficient to Sustain the PHEV/EV Market?
Dr. Menahem Anderman, President,
Advanced Automotive Batteries
The PHEV/EV application offers significant market opportunities for advanced batteries. However, the value proposition of those vehicles to customers is weak compared to that of hybrid vehicles or conventional ICE vehicles. As such, for the foreseeable future, government incentives and mandates will be the key drivers of the market. In this presentation, we will assess:
- Key characteristics of currently available EV and PHEV batteries
- Realistic roadmap for technological progress and cost reduction
- Future EV and PHEV value proposition
- Future market growth scenarios
- Key players and their challenges
Development of E-Mobility in China
Dr. Hao Li, Managing Director,
HCA Consulting China
This presentation gives an overview of the development of electric car industry in China today.
The presentation will cover the following topics
- Historical market size of e-vehicles in China, including cars and buses
- Key brands available and OEM manufacturers
- Current policies and incentives provided by Chinese government
- Future targets to be achieved in China in 2015 and 2020
- The ambitious plan of the Chinese auto OEMs
- Regional targets
- Key barriers for China electric vehicle industry
- Development trend of batteries in electric vehicles in China
- Type of batteries used and constrains
- Future development of battery industry in China
- Key battery producers in China
- Key battery material producers in China
Selling EVs in the California Market
Paul Scott, Leaf Specialist,
Plug In America
- What do customers look for when they evaluate the Nissan leaf?
In order of importance to customers:
- Charge station locations
- Lesser concerns: practicalities including safety rating; color; fit and finish
- What are the main characteristics of those who actually purchase the car?
- Credit worthy
- Higher Income (six figures and above)
- Mostly politically progressive (though not exclusively)
- What are the main reasons expressed not to buy the car?
- Lack of charging infrastructure
- What percent of the people who test-drive the car actually buy it?
- 90 percent; dispels misconceptions brought to the table
- How high is the concern about battery life and how do the Nissan Leaf sales people address the issue?
- Concern is moderately high, due to battery cost. Sales people outline the eight-year, 100,000-mile warranty, which often assuages concerns. We have buyers read and sign a four-page disclosure about battery life, range and expected degradation of 20 percent over five years. During the vehicle's first summer, with record heat waves in AZ and TX, higher than expected battery degradation occurred among some vehicles in those states. Widespread opinion holds that an active battery cooling system is needed. Current Leaf technology is passive.