Session 1 (Joint session with automotive symposium session 1):
xEV and Advanced Industrial/Stationary Battery Market
The automotive and stationary/industrial markets present great opportunities for advanced high-energy batteries. Battery requirements vary with the applications, offering opportunities for multiple technologies. In this session we will discuss the development of the hybrid and electric vehicle and battery market, the stationary, utility, and telecom-related energy-storage systems market, and the prospects of advanced batteries in the traditional industrial battery market while assessing market drivers, competing technologies, and technological and commercial challenges.
President of Advanced Automotive Batteries and founder of Total Battery Consulting, Inc., Dr. Anderman has led the development and commercialization of high-power Ni-Cd batteries, Li-Ion batteries, and ultracapacitors and spent the last ten years conducting assessments of energy-storage technologies for advanced vehicles, publishing Advanced Automotive Battery Industry Reports and chairing the AABC.
Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstream Vehicle Electrification Larry Nitz, Executive Director Global Transmission and Electrification, General Motors
The electric vehicle market development is driven by multiple factors. The industry “Price of Entry” factors include increasingly stringent CO2 requirements, standard charging interfaces, and charger availability. Additionally, new electrified vehicles must deliver on styling, features, driving excitement. Balancing technical solutions while exceeding customer expectations is key to GM’s battery strategy. This presentation will connect key high voltage battery characteristics to winning vehicle performance.
Toyota’s Commitment to Mirai, the Toyota Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Michael Lord, Executive Engineer, Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing, N.A.
18 years ago, Toyota introduced the gasoline-electric hybrid Prius, a vehicle which optimizes the efficiency of the internal combustion engine, provides electric propulsion, and reuses energy normally lost during braking. While it took 10 years for the cumulative sales of Toyota hybrids to exceed 1 million units, we now exceed that number annually. Hybridization has become Toyota’s mainstream application, and is core for Toyota’s alternative vehicles technology including Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCVs). Specifically, the Mirai FCV has the same battery, electric motor and power controls as a Toyota hybrid. The Toyota Fuel Cell System (TFCS) combines proprietary fuel cell technology that includes the Toyota FC Stack and high-pressure hydrogen tanks along with this hybrid technology. When compared to a conventional hybrid vehicle, the key difference is that the gasoline engine has been replaced with a fuel cell, which combines hydrogen and oxygen to create electricity for vehicle propulsion with zero emissions and water as the only by-product. In the place of the gasoline tank are two hydrogen tanks, which can be refueled in approximately three minutes, and with an ample cruising range of 300 miles, the system promises convenience on par with gasoline engine vehicles. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles, Battery Electric Vehicles and Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles all provide customers with options for their zero emission mobility. This presentation will focus on the FCV and the launch of the Toyota Mira and will discuss Toyota’s vision on how the Mirai fits in the continued electrification of the vehicle fleet.
Advanced Technology Vehicles - Challenges and Opportunities John German, Senior Fellow, International Council on Clean Transportation
We need the suite of electric drive technologies, potentially including fuel cells, to achieve our long-term transportation climate objectives. However, our current knowledge is insufficient to accurately forecast the best path to take.
David Greene has done some very useful and informative modeling. His LAVE model suggests that (a) the long-term benefits to society of making a transition to electric drive vehicles are an order of magnitude larger than the investment needed to cause the transition to happen and (b) market forces alone are insufficient to cause the transition to occur – electric vehicle incentives and policies such as the ZEV program are essential at the early stages to get the transition started.
A key assumption in the model is that the advanced technologies can compete without incentives in the long run. Thus it is critical that we have feedback loops and adjustments – what is working? How are customers responding?
The good news is that a recent National Academy of Science report found that, by the 2040 time frame, both battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles should be cheaper than conventional vehicles (although plug-in hybrids will always have a significant cost penalty). Part of this is due to the substantial reduction in size and cost of batteries and the fuel cell stack anticipated due to future use of lightweight materials. Other advantages are that batteries and hydrogen are both far safer than gasoline and electric drive is quieter and provides instant torque response.
Thus, both the pace and the ultimate success of the transition will be dominated by market acceptance issues. What is the optimal range for plug-in hybrids and BEVs – and do different customers want different choices? How does recharge time affect market acceptance? Can we successfully provide home charging in dense, urban areas? Can hydrogen be produced competitively with gasoline and electricity? How should hydrogen infrastructure be rolled out? How will the transition be affected by improved conventional vehicles and hybrids? What do mainstream customers want and how do they differ from early adopters? These are all questions that need to be monitored and the policies and incentives adjusted as we go along. It is also highly likely that different technologies will appeal to different customers – the future will likely be much more complex than the current near domination of gasoline.
xEV Market Drivers and Trends; the Role of Regulations, Incentives, and Technology Menahem Anderman, President, Advanced Automotive Batteries
The current wave of vehicle electrification occurred in two stages. The 1st stage started in 1997 with the introduction of the Toyota Prius, which was followed by development of high-voltage HEVs at most carmakers’. The 2nd stage began in 2008-2010 with the introduction of the Tesla EV, Nissan Leaf EV, and PHEVs by GM, Toyota, and Ford. Regardless of the level of electrification, geographical region, and class of vehicle, three factors play a key role in vehicle development and market entry: i) regulations and incentives from governments, ii) customer interest, and iii) vehicle and (predominantly) battery technology.
This presentation will show how combinations of those three factors continue to shape the new electrified-vehicle offerings from micro-hybrids to full EVs, with the European CO2 legislation, the California Air Resources Board’s Zero-Emission-Vehicle legislation, and the Chinese New-Energy Vehicle initiatives driving different vehicle offerings in the world’s three largest automotive markets.
We will discuss:
Battery-technology progress as enabler
Latest Status and Outlook for xEV Battery Market and Technology Takeshi Miyamoto, Senior Vice President, B3 Corporation
Great expansion of PHEV/BEV market is expected from CY17-18 to meet the new CARB mandate and EU's 95gCO2/km rule in CY2021. Attractive models are coming with high energy and low cost battery solution. B3 will provide the current and future market view regarding supplier/technology competition and preference with the original survey and analysis result.
Residential PV + Battery Storage: Could it Enable Residential Grid Defection? Claire Curry, Associate, Advanced Transport insight, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The falling price of residential batteries and uptake in residential solar could help households reduce electricity consumption or in some cases completely defect from the grid. This is of concern to US utilities and of interest to solar panel installation companies and battery manufacturers. To get to this stage though the economics of batteries, the way that consumers pay for grid electricity and a household’s energy use all have to be optimized. This presentation highlights the results of a model built by BNEF to illustrate the economics and feasibility of grid defection. Key topics will be:
What is the hype surrounding ‘grid defection’
The economics of solar PV plus home energy storage
The constraints to storage adoption and barriers to grid defection
Key criteria required to make it a reality
Tesla Powerwall – could it significantly enhance the case for grid defection?